The prime minister has a 2 percent rating in public opinion polls.
He was appointed by a lame-duck president with similarly microscopic
approval ratings. Does that constitute the makings of a successful
presidential campaign?
That's what political analysts across the country are asking.
President Boris Yeltsin has anointed Prime Minister Vladimir Putin his successor - something that would normally amount to
pearl necklace a political death sentence.
But
despite the Kremlin's dark shadow hanging over him, analysts are not
ruling out the possibility of Putin's winning the presidency.
"I
think if he participates in the presidential race, his chances will be
very high," said Gleb Pavlovsky, head of the Foundation of Effective
Politics, a Moscow think tank.
"There is the power of incumbency
he enjoys as prime minister - something that should not be
underestimated. Who knew Stepashin before his appointment? Yet now he
has a presidential rating, and Putin will have the same," Pavlovsky
added.
Nikolai Popov, a scientific consultant at the Regional
Political Research Agency, agrees. He believes aspects of Putin's
persona that currently appear negative could be transformed into assets
if used intelligently.
"Putin obviously needs to tactfully
distance himself from the Kremlin and Yeltsin. But his reputation as a
KGB officer - anathema to outside observers - could attract the support
of a certain amount of the Russian electorate," he said.
"I have
noticed that he has become a bit smoother," Popov observed. "So if he
manages to convey this, along with the image of a strong person with a
steady hand, it could play well."
Putin is believed to have initially hesitated about a presidential run.
But former first deputy head of the presidential administration, Oleg Sysuyev, said according to
freshwater pearl earrings his information, Putin is beginning to appreciate the attractiveness of the presidential throne.
"It
seemed to me that he initially had a problem with his own desire [for
the presidency]," Sysuyev said. "But people now tell me this is no
longer the case."
Sources close to Putin say the prime minister
is currently seriously considering options for transforming his image.
Three possibilities have come to the fore.
The first came from Kremlin political advisers: to try to foster the perception of Putin as a modern-day Yury Andropov.
Andropov
led the Soviet Union for 15 months after having headed the KGB. Despite
the fear the secret police inspired among the population in those days,
Andropov is remembered as an honest man who sought to bring order to
the country, chiefly by combating corruption.
After Putin was
appointed prime minister, many commentators immediately drew the
comparison. As a former secret service chief, Putin - with his reserved
attitude and steely glaze - looked every inch the spy.
Andrei
Ryabov of the Carnegie Endowment Center believes the Andropov image is
powerful and resonates with the electorate. But he says Yevgeny
Primakov, the former premier and front-runner in presidential polls, is
more likely to successfully exploit it.
"Primakov was also in
the secret service and symbolizes political stability. Putin simply
does not have the time to be able to match the former prime minister in
constructing the Andropov persona," Ryabov argued.
Pavlovsky
dismisses the Andropov analogy. "It's a silly retrospective
observation," he said. "Andropov's image was based on the power he had
accumulated before [he became leader], and he was appointed, not
elected.
"Moreover, in relation to
twisted pearl necklace
the fight against corruption, Andropov's successes were less than
impressive. What counts is that a person is not tainted by corruption.
In that sense, Putin is in a strong position," Pavlovsky said.
Another
option discussed in the narrow circle surrounding the prime minister is
that of a "Chubais with a human face." The authors of this strategy
believe that presenting Putin as possessing former First Deputy Prime
Minister Anatoly Chubais' reformist zeal in a more electorally
palatable manner could prove attractive.
But from the point of
view of a professional pollster such as Nikolai Popov, the suggestion
is doubtful, bordering on the absurd.
"There is no electorate
for Chubais in this country now," Popov said. "Besides, it is
impossible to combine a powerful determination to implement liberal
reforms with attention to the social sector. The two are incompatible."
The
last possibility is for the prime minister to create and develop his
own image. But both Pavlovsky and Ryabov expressed bemusement with the
idea.
"It's nonsense to talk about constructing someone's
charisma. A person either has it or doesn't. And in Putin thus far, I
haven't noticed any charisma," Pavlovsky said.
"Putin simply
does not have the personality," Ryabov concurred. "He looks like a good
secret service agent, but he is not a public politician."
But
other experts said a security service background does more than just
impress the population. That three presidential "pretenders" -
Primakov, Stepashin and Putin - hail from the security services is not
just coincidence to many political observers.
The Federal
Security Service (FSB), a successor to the KGB, is the only institution
that still has a network in the regions, Ryabov said. The organization
knows what is happening outside the capital, giving Russia's last three
prime ministers a solid understanding of the country's provinces.
Pavlovsky
says regional governors are now most interested in solving the problem
of Russia's succession of power and will take the new prime minister
seriously.
"If Putin proposes a real answer to
potato pearl
the succession question, he has a chance [for the presidency]. It is
not how the masses respond [to Putin] that is important, but what the
regional elite thinks," Pavlovsky argued. "The governors want access to
federal government support."
However, Ryabov sees no possibility of Putin's taking the top job "short of subverting the constitution by canceling elections."
"There
is too little time to 'sell him' to the electorate," Ryabov said.
Furthermore, the level of distrust among the population toward the
Kremlin - of which Putin is a representative - is so strong that it is
impossible for him to become president by democratic means."